If you have been comparing a condo in Carlsbad Village to a house in San Marcos, you have probably assumed both are building equity at roughly the same pace. Over the past twelve months, that assumption has not held up. Detached homes across Carlsbad, Oceanside, Encinitas, San Marcos, Fallbrook, and Bonsall closed at a median price about 3.4 percent higher than the year before. Condos and townhomes in the same six cities closed at a median price that was essentially flat, up less than one percent. At the same time, the average monthly HOA due on those attached-home sales climbed more than 6 percent. Owners are paying more to hold a property that is not appreciating the way a house down the street is.

This is not a story about financing or how fast deals close. Cash buyers made up almost exactly the same share of sales in both segments, around 27 to 28 percent, and the typical escrow ran the same 27 days either way. The gap is showing up in value and in carrying cost, not in how hard it is to get a loan or get to the closing table.

The twelve-month gap, by the numbers

Looking at closed sales across Carlsbad, Oceanside, Encinitas, San Marcos, Fallbrook, and Bonsall over the last year compared with the year before:

  • Detached homes: median closed price rose from about $1,190,000 to $1,230,000, up roughly 3.4 percent.
  • Condos and townhomes: median closed price held at about $745,000 to $750,000, essentially unchanged.
  • Average monthly HOA dues on those same condo and townhome sales rose from about $503 to $534, up more than 6 percent.

Put differently, the typical attached home in North County appreciated by roughly nothing while its carrying cost went up by nearly $500 a year. That is the opposite of what most buyers expect a "starter" or "lock and leave" property to do.

Why houses pulled ahead and condos did not

A few things are compounding at once, and none of them are unique to any one building or HOA.

Land is the scarce input, and houses sit on more of it. In built-out coastal cities like Carlsbad and Encinitas, there is very little new detached inventory coming online. Buyers who want a yard, a garage, and no shared walls are competing for a shrinking pool of lots, and that scarcity shows up directly in price.

HOA budgets are catching up on deferred costs. Many California condo and townhome associations, especially in buildings with elevated walkways or balconies, are now working through state-mandated structural inspections and the reserve funding those inspections require. Boards that under-collected for years are raising dues and, in some cases, issuing special assessments to bring reserves current. That cost lands on current owners immediately, while any resale benefit from a safer, better-maintained building shows up much more slowly.

Insurance is a bigger line item for shared structures. Master policies covering an entire condo complex have seen renewal increases well ahead of general inflation over the past two years, and HOAs are passing that through in dues rather than absorbing it.

Buyer psychology has shifted, too. When a condo's total monthly cost, mortgage plus dues plus its share of insurance, starts creeping toward what a small detached home costs, buyers increasingly stretch for the house. That thins the buyer pool for attached product at the exact moment sellers need it deepest.

What this looks like city by city

The gap is not uniform, and the differences are worth knowing before you assume your neighborhood follows the regional pattern.

  • Encinitas shows the sharpest split: detached homes rose about 7.6 percent to a median of $2,297,500, while condos and townhomes fell about 6 percent to $1,057,500.
  • Fallbrook condos and townhomes saw the steepest decline of the six cities, down roughly 6.9 percent to a median of $540,000, even as detached homes there kept rising, up about 3 percent to $928,000.
  • Oceanside is the exception. Attached-home prices actually rose faster than detached prices this year, up roughly 6.8 percent versus about 2.7 percent for houses. Oceanside's lower entry price point and walkable, close-to-the-water inventory near the harbor and downtown appear to be pulling in buyers who might otherwise be priced out of Carlsbad or Encinitas condos entirely.
  • San Marcos saw modest gains in both segments, while Carlsbad condos and townhomes dipped slightly even as detached homes there held roughly flat.

Before you write an offer on a condo or townhome

If you are still drawn to an attached home, and there are good reasons to be, walkability, lower maintenance, a lower entry price, go in with your eyes open:

  • Request the last three years of HOA financials and the most recent reserve study, not just the current budget.
  • Ask directly whether the building has completed any required inspections of balconies or elevated walkways, and whether a special assessment is pending or has been discussed.
  • Get the current master insurance policy and ask about the renewal history, not just this year's premium.
  • Budget your monthly cost forward two to three years, not at today's dues, since the trend line in this data is up.
  • Compare your "all-in" monthly cost, mortgage, dues, and your share of insurance, to a detached home at a similar total cost rather than comparing sticker prices alone.
  • Weigh location as heavily as the unit itself. Oceanside's numbers suggest walkable, amenity-rich locations near the coast are absorbing dues increases better than more car-dependent complexes inland.

If you already own a condo or townhome

None of this means you made a mistake buying where you did, and it does not mean now is automatically the wrong time to sell. It does mean a few things are worth doing proactively:

  • Pull your HOA's latest reserve study and financials before you list, and be ready to hand them to a buyer's agent on day one. Surprises here are what stall escrows.
  • Price against recent comparable closings in your building and complex type, not against detached homes in your city, which are appreciating on a different track right now.
  • If a special assessment has been discussed but not yet passed, get clarity before you go to market. Buyers will ask, and an honest answer up front is better than one that surfaces in escrow.

Is a condo still worth buying in North County?

In the right building, yes. The data above is a regional pattern, not a verdict on every complex. Associations with healthy reserves, completed inspections, and dues that have already absorbed recent insurance increases are a very different purchase than one still catching up. The point is not to avoid condos and townhomes altogether. It is to underwrite the HOA with the same seriousness you would underwrite the property itself, since right now the HOA is doing more to determine your return than the square footage is.

If you are weighing a condo against a house anywhere from Carlsbad to Fallbrook, or you own one and want a clear-eyed read on where it stands against current comps, we are happy to walk through the numbers with you. Reach out to McCoy | Obermueller & Associates for a private consultation.

FAQs

Are condos a bad investment in North County San Diego right now?

  • Not universally. Across Carlsbad, Oceanside, Encinitas, San Marcos, Fallbrook, and Bonsall, condo and townhome values were roughly flat over the past year while HOA dues rose faster than inflation, but individual buildings with healthy reserves and completed inspections are performing better than the regional average.

Why are HOA dues going up so much in 2026?

  • Many associations are funding state-mandated inspections of balconies and elevated walkways, catching up on previously under-collected reserves, and absorbing steep increases in master insurance premiums, and those costs are being passed through to owners as higher monthly dues.

Is it harder to get financing for a condo than a house in this market?

  • Not based on recent closed sales in these six cities. Cash buyers made up about the same share of both condo and detached-home purchases, and typical escrow length was identical, so financing access is not what is driving the price gap.

Which North County cities have condos holding value best?

  • Oceanside and San Marcos stood out over the past year, with condo and townhome prices holding up better than the regional pattern, while Encinitas and Fallbrook saw the steepest condo declines.

What should I ask about before buying a condo or townhome here?

  • Request the last three years of HOA financials and reserve study, ask about the status of any required balcony or walkway inspections, get the master insurance renewal history, and budget your monthly cost forward rather than at today's dues.